Justin vs. Zach
PART II
Oscar Predictions
My brother Justin and I are here for your convenience folks. The Oscars always offer us the most entertaining predictions of the season, and me and my brother will be competing to see who truly is the master of guessing what 65 year old white people will vote. We haven’t seen all of them but we can have our fingers on the pulse of the awards season. Whether it is best picture or those extremely aggravating small categories about less than .05% of the population, we’ll try to consider overall consensus from around the web. SO, without further ado, let’s begin the EPIC BATTLE OF OSCAR VOTING! JUSTIN VS. ZACH!
Let’s start with the smallest of categories:
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
Henry
ZACH: Alrighty Kid-J! Time For Me to beat you a second year in a row! You will be tasting the same defeat Cub’s fans taste when their Old Style beer is down to their last drop, and they are forced to watch their abysmal team on the field when they can’t quite suckle it down.
As you know, these first few categories are always tough, but coming out of some awards shows, apparently “Curfew” is looking like a frontrunner in this category, and it seems to me that any film in these labeled as ‘frontrunner’ status is good enough for me. That is why my pick, the right one, and one of many compared to your weak choices this year again, will be “Curfew.”
JUSTIN: Come on, Zach. I will most definitely beat you this year. I used my heart last year for these categories and now I used Google this year. Also, I’m the better looking twin. ANYWAYS, after some quick Googling, I discovered that there was only one English nominee “Curfew”.
Because I was born and raised in the greatest country on Earth and since nobody likes reading subtitles (especially the old farts in the Academy), my choice is “Curfew”. America!
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
JUSTIN: Yawn. I am labeling this category as the most boring one ever. None of these documentaries are not really exciting to me. I’m going to hell for this, but documentaries about Africa and cancer aren’t particularly interesting. They are important causes to cover. However, they’ve been overdone time and time again and the plotlines feel redundant. My winner is “Innocente” because that one at least intrigues me. It seems like it’s about the creative process of a unlikely creative guy and I love thinking about the way others think. Let’s move on.
ZACH: Justin, I am clearly the better looking twin, it’s not even a close contest. When women see me, their hearts melt, and when women see you, their eyes feel like pine needles are being shoved through their retinas. However, I do agree about the boring ness of this category, as about 1% of the viewing audience has probably even seen these shorts. I can’t believe this, but I am also going with “Innocente” and agreeing with you, because I believe the academy will reward a moving short film about a homeless man. I was leaning towards “Mondays at Racine” because it is about women dealing with cancer, but the homeless man and its apparently strong use of the camera gets the favor here.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in `The Longest Daycare
Paperman
ZACH: All I’ve read around, and even heard from some of my own people, is that this is a two horse race. “Adam and Dog” and “Paperman” are the two horsemen. “Adam and Dog” is hard not to root for, because it is about a man going to meet his dog, in beautiful design and a dog lover’s dream. The only problem is that not as many people may have seen it as “Paperman”, which was shown before “Wreck it Ralph” and Disney is marketing it for a victory. The fact it is being marketed for such a small category shows great confidence by the studio, which is giving me great confidence to go with “Paperman” in this category.
JUSTIN: I love this category. We got three heavyweights in “The Longest Daycare”, “Adam and Dog” and the baller “Paperman”. “The Longest Daycare” is about Maggie Simpson trying to get through a terrible day of daycare at toddler hell AKA The Ayn Rand School For Tots, where she once was the mastermind the greatest jailbreak in sitcom history. She’s the greatest. We also got “Adam and Dog”, who is about a man who cannot wait to meet his dog. An obvious choice.
Then we have “Paperman”. “Paperman” is created and produced by the Walt Disney Company, who is responsible for most of the positive emotions that I’ve felt in my life. I dare you to not smile from ear to ear after watching it. The plot is so simple, a guy who sees a girl at the train station and tries to get her attention by throwing paper airplanes across their buildings, is so beautiful and wonderful that it makes me smile. As much as I love the badass that is Maggie Simpson, I cannot deny “Paperman”.
Now on to some more “realistic” categories:
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
JUSTIN: It is impossible for me to tell who does the best job in this category because all the sounds in every movie here mesh together so well. The fact that I cannot tell the difference between what sounds the best and what doesn’t means that all these nominees are all very good at their jobs.So I am just going to pick my favorite movie from the bunch. “Zero Dark Thirty” wins this one because it was the best film I saw this year and it just leaves you so solemn (in a strangely good way) after seeing it. No other movie made me feel like that. That’s special.
ZACH: This is a very tough category to go after and predict. So we need to take this one slow. I have a feeling “Argo” might just take a bunch of awards home on the night, but don’t seem to thinkit’s sound was an important part of the movie as some of the music for the other nominee’s films were. “Skyfall” uses a ton of action scenes loaded with sounds that need to flow together in order to make a seamless environment. After seeing the film in IMAX, where the eardrums really meet the noise of the film, it was seemingly well done. The sound categories usually produce a surprise or two, but ultimately “Zero Dark Thirty” needs sound and its editing to produce the tension that is so crucial to a story we already know the ending to. “Girl with a Dragon Tattoo” was a dark film that won last year, and this dark film will win this year. “Zero Dark Thirty” with the win.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
ZACH: Here’s a nice simple answer for you Justin. The academy has nominated the “Skyfall” sound editor, Greg P. Russell 16 times, and he never won. 16 times! It’s like they always say, the 17th times the charm. We have our first disagreement here it seems, and I’m obviously the one that is right. Justin thinks “Les Mis” is the worlds most emotionally powerful film ever created (to paraphrase his weak,emotional self), but its emotions don’t win sound mixing awards. That’s why I’m feeling the Oscar voters will help get “Skyfall” a victory here.
(I know there is no way you are going to go against “Les Mis” in any questionably predictable category Justin!)
JUSTIN: Zach, I was born human. What was I supposed to do? Not cry when Fantine sang “ I Dreamed a Dream” or at the end during “Epilogue”? It’s impossible. I have feelings. Argo was a cool movie. Life of Pi seems astounding. “Lincoln” taught me that Tommy Lee Jones can outact any person not named Daniel Day-Lewis. And “Skyfall” was the best Bond film of lifetime. But “Les Mis” is all singing (beautiful singing, I might add) and that has a big impact on the importance of sound mixing. Other than it making my soul cry, it did the best job. All “Les Mis” everything.
BEST SCORE:
"Anna Karenina," Dario Marianelli;
"Argo," Alexandre Desplat
"Life of Pi," Mychael Danna
"Lincoln," John Williams
"Skyfall," Thomas Newman
JUSTIN: All of these scores are excellent, especially “Skyfall” and “Argo”. But they don’t have the composer secret weapon that is just a walking winner: John Williams. Just like Daniel Day Lewis should win every Best Actor award for the rest of his life, Mr. Williams should win every year. He is by far the most prominent and greatest composer in film right now. He’s the man. When he enters a room, every musician, even if they play something odd like the triangle, bow to him entirely out of respect. He’s that good. I’m pretty sure that he wakes up, his piss sounds like a melody. “Lincoln” wins.
ZACH: John Williams is indeed a legendary composer, and without a doubt always deserving of an award. In fact, he has been nominated 48 times in his career, so the Oscars are no stranger to him. However, I don’t believe the “Lincoln” score was truly inspiring, or worthy of anything more than a nomination. To actually WIN one of those little golden people, the score needs to be the driver of the film, where you couldn’t imagine the film without it. That is what the academy looks for when they vote in this category and “Life of Pi” is indeed that movie, where the music needs to flow with the astounding visuals and really tell the story without many words being spoken. Just like “The Artist” last year for winning where its music drove the film due to a lack of words, “Life of Pi” wins for the music driving its story.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
"Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice," J. Ralph;
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from "Ted," Walter Murphy and Seth MacFarlane;
"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi," Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri;
"Skyfall" from "Skyfall," Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth;
"Suddenly" from "Les Miserables," Claude-Michel Schonberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
ZACH: Justin, this category is an absolute no brainer. In fact, it would be criminal if the result were anything different than choosing “Skyfall” by Adele. Not only are the Oscars celebrating 50 years of Bond on Sunday, but they need to represent it a victorious sort of way, and the perfect time for them to do this is by having Adele’s song win; not to mention it was one of the best produced songs on the billboard charts, let alone the original movie songs this year. Easiest category of the night by far. If anyone picks anything else, they are either joking around or have their head stuck in a drain pipe.
JUSTIN: As much as I love “Les Mis”, I cannot deny Adele. She may be hated for selling as many records as there are people in India, but “Skyfall” is an awesome song. It would be kind of funny if Seth McFarlane accepted an award at the ceremony he is hosting, but that ain’t happening. Some people were born winners, Adele is one of them.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
JUSTIN: “The Hobbit” shot in a weird format. “The Avengers” had superheroes. “Snow White” had terrible acting. But “Prometheus” had aliens and was legitimately scary. That movie had me on edge like no other. It wins because those aliens were so damn scary.
ZACH: Justin, like I said before, you are emotionally weak. Those aliens weren’t scary because the movie and its script allowed its characters, except for David, to be extremely dull. You almost root for the bad guy to win, which is never a good sign. “Life of Pi” used terrific visual technology, and that technology was so surreal, it was hard to tell what was fake and what was real. Even Roger Ebert said Ang Lee’s use of 3-D was worthy, and Roger Ebert has been one of the biggest advocates against the technology. “Life of Pi”, in my opinion is a virtual lock to win this award.
BEST MAKEUP:
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
ZACH: This is always an interesting category, because all three categories really transformed their characters via the use of makeup. I wish “Looper” had gotten in because of how well done the job of making Joseph Gordon-Levitt look like the offspring of Bruce Willis was done. “The Hobbit” uses a ton of makeup on their characters as well, and the academy loves Lord of the Rings. “Les Mis” also uses makeup to get that look on all of its citizens look like the litter box of France. I think the Oscar folks are looking to reward the best picture contenders here that won’t win later on, so “Les Mis” I believe will eventually pick up this win on Oscar night.
JUSTIN: Finally some sense from you, brother! “The Hobbit” has some cool makeup but it’s nothing that we haven’t seen before. “Les Mis” wins. Nothing else matters.
BEST EDITING:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
JUSTIN: Another good category where it is nearly impossible to tell who does the best job. The only way you can see their impact is if an editor makes a mistake. The margin is too close. I’ll go with “Zero Dark Thirty” because I liked it the most.
ZACH: Argo and Zero Dark Thirty are both considered frontrunners here, and even more surprising is the fact that they are both edited by the same man, William Goldbenberg. That man isn’t going to be out of a job anytime soon. The editing category, however, usually is an indicator on who will win the big award later on, and that is why I am going to have to go with “Argo” in this category. for a film that climaxes in three different areas around the globe, the editing helped make the film smoothly connect all those characters together to see how they were all working at once in order to get the hostages out alive.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
JUSTIN: This category is so unimportant to me that I will only answer this in two sentences. “Anna Karenina” had the fanciest clothes so it wins.
ZACH: I don’t know what you’re talking about Justin! Costumes are important! James Bond wouldn’t have been the same if someone hadn't picked out the grey vanHeusen suit instead of the grey Men’s Warehouse suit (I honestly have no idea what suit he wore, it was probably something way more expensive, but shows how meaningless it actually is) Costume designers are like the big time investors after they have struck gold. They sit around and maybe give some advice, and then they make large sums of money doing a very simple job. Period movies always win these, and “Anna Karenina” looks like it will continue the trend. The only thing holding me back is the “Mirror, Mirror” died after the making of the movie, and the academy might want to recognize her lifetime of work.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
JUSTIN: Zach, you wrote 100 more words on costume design than I thought you would. For this one, it’s pretty simple. Middle Earth is forever the coolest and most beautiful place on Earth. Everybody knows this. Which is why it pains me so much to pick “The Hobbit”. People haven’t seen Middle Earth for awhile and I think that will bring them back to when they saw it for the very first time. Sorry “Les Mis”, I promise I’ll get you back later.
ZACH: I do indeed love the production design of “The Shire”, but unfortunately they have already awarded these people for those designs in the past. “Anna Karenia” and its production set are amazing to look at.
What's holding me back from picking it right now is the fact “Avatar” won for this category, and that was all virtually create, just like “Life of Pi” and its design. After looking at a picture of the set though, I think I am going to have to go with “Anna Karenina” on this one as well.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
ZACH: Cinematography! all right. For those of you who still question yourself about what exactly this category is supposed to reward, it is supposed to reward the most beautiful use of color blending, and photography in motion. “Life of Pi” is well known this year for its visuals, but “Skyfall”, especially the fight scene in the glass wall room at night, has suddenly emerged as a fierce competitor in this race. This is easily my toughest choice on the night by far, and after much brain punching, I think I am going to have to go with “Life of Pi” simply because visuals is all it really has going for it at the end of the day.
JUSTIN: Now we’re talking. Cinematography is fantastic. I love it. This is a close race, so let’s eliminate each film one by one. “Anna Karenina” goes first because it doesn’t deserve anything nice. “Lincoln” is the next one to go because the sets were way better than than sweeping pans of the Cabinet table. “Django Unchained” unfortunately goes next because in spite of having one of the game’s best behind the lense (Robert Richardson), it wasn’t quite as special as our final two films. “Skyfall” had a wide range of cool action shots and so good use of darkness. But “Life of Pi” looks incredible and feels very vibrant. I sure as hell would hate to be stuck in the middle of the ocean with a tiger, but man it’s gorgeous. That wins.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
JUSTIN: I have not heard of any of these documentaries, with the exception of “Searching For Sugar Man”. I heard it was pretty awesome and because of the major buzz surrounding it, that is my pick. Anything else would be a travesty.
ZACH: Travesty is a pretty big word to throw around. “How To Survive a Plague” delves into the world of AIDS in the 80’s and is supposed to be a phenomenal film, with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes out of 59 reviews. This category has been very unpredictable in the past. But, like you said, “Sugar Man” has a lot of buzz and awards surrounding it, and seems like a clear frontrunner for this Oscar. “Searching For Sugar Man” it is.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
ZACH: Overall, this is one of the weakest animated categories I have ever seen. When Pixar isn’t on its game, it seems like that will usually be the case. “Brave” was just an okay film, and when Pixar is just okay, their films seem to be substandard due to their history. Disney came out with their own surprising heart warming film, “Wreck It Ralph”, and it did well at the box office. This is the only film I think is even worth celebrating a victory. “Wreck It Ralph” will 'wreck' its opponents on Sunday.
JUSTIN: I agree with you Zach that this isn’t the strongest field, but there’s a couple goodies here. “Brave” was a solid Pixar film. I enjoyed it. But “Wreck-It Ralph” really killed when I saw it. I tend to judge animated movies by how much my classmates like them. I was in a theatre full of my peers and they all really enjoyed it. It was adorable, funny, and original. That will push it to Oscar glory.
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
"Amour," Austria
"Kon-Tiki," Norway
"No," Chile
"A Royal Affair," Denmark
"War Witch," Canada
JUSTIN: For this category, there is only real contender: “Amour”. Supposedly it’s really good and features a bunch of other nominees that robbed Affleck of an Oscar nod. The other four are just there for show. “Amour” takes home the Oscar in a landslide.
ZACH: “Amour” is nominated for writing, directing, best actress, and for Best Picture. If it doesn’t win, it would be the biggest shock in Oscar history. That is how much of a lock this category is for “Amour”.
Now it is time for the real meat and potatoes of Oscar night, the writing and acting awards, and of course Best picture. Sadly, there are so many contests before the Oscars, these categories become more and more predictable every year, but this year is a little more unpredictable. HERE WE GO!
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Chris Terrio, "Argo”
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
David Magee, "Life of Pi"
Tony Kushner, "Lincoln"
David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
ZACH: Now this a category Justin! I believe this category is going to be all about where the Best Picture race is heading as the night goes on. Tony Kushner is a Pulitzer winning author, and “Argo” has been sweeping up awards shows. The other films in this category have good scripts, but Argo blends three storylines, foreign language, and a tight weaving of a climax to aid itself and make the film what it is. A screenplay usually goes hand in hand with best Picture, and that’s why I see “Argo” walking home with this award, because they need to make it up to Ben Affleck as much as possible for snubbing him.
JUSTIN: About time we get to the good stuff. Kushner wrote a very well done script that was rich with historical fact (to the extent that Hollywood allows) and let DDL do his thing on the screen. “Argo” was just as factual (with the exception of the scene at the airport). The film was thrilling and kind of suspenseful because you were always worried the people were going to be captured. "Argo" is going to win this one because it’s been tearing up the award circuit and should complete it’s dominance here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Michael Haneke, "Amour"
Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained"
John Gatins, "Flight"
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, "Moonrise Kingdom"
Mark Boal, "Zero Dark Thirty"
JUSTIN: This category gets me all hot and bothered. I LOVED “Django” and QT. He’s my boy. I LOVED “Moonrise Kingdom”, too. The dialogue is so witty and original that you could tell it’s a Wes Anderson just by hearing the characters talk. QT has got this ability too, but Anderson’s words seemed to pop more because he hasn’t made a good movie in a while. Meanwhile, “Zero Dark Thirty” is something else entirely. I have never felt so emotionally paralyzed while watching a movie that I knew the ending too. That has never happened before. I would have to give more credit to Kathryn Bigelow for that, bit Boal had a big hand in that too. While my head says that ZD30 will win, my heart says QT. And I always go with my heart. I just want an awesome speech and he will deliver. He always does.
ZACH: Good choice not going with “Zero Dark Thirty”, that film is based on real life events, and I don’t really think it is ‘original’ as the category suggests these script should be. “Amour” is supposedly one of the frontrunners, but usually foreign films are forgotten about after they get their Best Foreign film award, and I think they makes it fall to the back of the pack in this category. And while I generally hate Wes Anderson films because I think he purposefully goes for weird and strange relationships for the sake of adding unnecessary elements to a story, “Moonrise Kingdom” was easily his best film ever, making all the relationships have an actual essential meaning to the plot of the film. However, he has never won, and this year won’t be any different. That leaves us with “Flight” and “Django Unchained”. “flight was single handedly carried by Denzel Washington and his phenomenal on screen charisma, give a weaker actor the same script and it seems like a boring drama, or a flat out farce. That leaves us with Quentin Tarantino. He has always made masterful original scripts, and the only thing holding back a victory here is the Academy’s reluctance to award a film so violent But QT’s dialogue shines so brightly with great acting, and such long, drawn out dialogue setting up epic sequences we usually don’t forget. “Django Unchained” is the only true worthy contender in this category, and I will be rooting for it as well on Sunday.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"
ZACH: Here we go again, another extremely tough category to predict. Christoph Waltz brings Tarantino’s script to another level with his elegant, snarky, but clear speaking tone he has perfected in the last two films he has collaborated with him on. Any other year, he would win with ease, but I truly believe in someone else in this category. That man is Tommy Lee Jones for “Lincoln”. In fact, I may be one of the only few people who thought Tommy Lee Jones stole the film from Daniel Day Lewis. Whenever Jones showed up on the screen, there was this sense of power he had over anyone he spoke with, and that his stubbornness would eventually get the job done. He had the power to guide the country in whatever direction he wanted. Only a man who makes this face (below) while listening to a comedian, could command such a presence.
JUSTIN: Well, we have quite the seasoned field this year. Alan Arkin is at the top of his game as a cranky old Hollywood guy. Christoph Waltz brings Tarantino’s snark to life better than anyone. But Tommy Lee Jones is a killer. In “Lincoln”, he just took over and owned the damn screen. Jones cannot be topped. He doesn’t even need to smile, either.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, "The Master"
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"
JUSTIN: All five of these actresses are experts at their craft and I highly respect all of their work, but Anne Hathaway is the only one that matters this year. I mean, for crying out loud, she did this. Tears are still streaming down my face. Oh lord, it’s so beautiful.
ZACH: I love Amy Adams in everything, but “The Master” is not her ‘master’piece. Sally Field was best in “Forrest Gump”, and kind of a nuisance in lincoln, in my opinion, and maybe she was supposed to be. You can’t keep nagging Lincoln though, honey. Jacki Weaver is a rising star, after being nominated for best actress in the past, but not ready to take over a mainstream Oscar film. Helen Hunt is the only worthy runner up for this award? Well, as my brother cries his little heart out about Anne Hathaway, she is definitely well deserving of the award and has swept up every other major award this season. I can’t wait for her to say on stage, “In “Les Mis”, my character said she “Dreams a Dream”, well tonight I feel like I’m Dreaming a Dream.” It will be so corny, but so well earned. Anne Hathaway has this one all sewn up.
BEST ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
ZACH: For the reasons I mentioned earlier, I believe “Flight” would have been a forgotten film if it weren’t for the presence of the great Denzel Washington. Put someone like Jamie Foxx in there, and they stare too long at the floor, or make too many hissy faces, and it seems contrived. So while I think he should win the award, he won’t. Daniel Day Lewis is indeed a good actor, and even though Liam Neeson was picked to play Lincoln first (which I badly would have loved to have seen), Lewis still managed to put a great spin on Lincoln and will win this category with ease. Bradley Cooper keeps on getting nominated. I don’t know why, maybe its his good looks, but definitely not worthy of a nomination. Hugh Jackman might have won this award if it wasn’t for Lewis being the great American actor he is. Oh, and I guess Joaquin Phoenix is back to acting after “disappearing” for two years. That ridiculous hoax isn’t making him any new fans in the Academy.
JUSTIN: Zach, I didn’t know you had friends in the Academy. Hook me up with an internship, bro. Denzel’s awesome (as usual) and Cooper charmed his way into a nomination, apparently. Hugh Jackman killed it as Jean Valjean, growing a scraggly beard then going straight to clean cut while hitting every note with precision. But it’s an unwritten rule that Thespian Master and Commander Daniel Day-Lewis gets this Oscar. Hands down. I was pretty sure that he was Lincoln after the movie was over. Plus, he never breaks character for no reason whatsoever. That’s dedication, homie.
BEST ACTRESS:
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Quvenzhane Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
JUSTIN: I thought that Jessica Chastain had the award underwraps when I saw "ZD30" but I was so, so wrong. Just give it to Wallis right now. The 6 year-old nominee is extremely good in here role and is so precious. I love her. She's gonna win and I'm gonna throw a party.
ZACH: Jessica Chastain was considered a frontrunner when “Zero Dark Thirty first came out, but controversy and a lack of nominations for the film have almost killed any chance of her picking up a win. Wallis is only 6 years old, so I think she has some time on her hands to get nominated later on in life, Justin. Besides, I don't think you can give someone that young an Oscar who is really only barely acting, and just acting like herself. Meanwhile, there is 86 year old Emmanuelle Riva for “Amour”. She has been a critical darling this year, essentially coming out of retirement to make this film because the situation of dealing with old age was so relatable to her life. Reports around the web say she has all the momentum riding into Sunday, but I don’t think she will have enough to take the main prize. The little golden buddy (Great name for the Oscar Justin, want to call it that for now on? Come on “Little Buddy”) will go to one of my favorite actresses working today, Jennifer Lawrence. I remember seeing her in “Winter Bone” and commanding a toughness hard for women to convey in film ,and she does it again in “Silver Linings Playbook”.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Michael Haneke, "Amour”
Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"
David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
ZACH: I am going with Ben Affleck in this category. Wait, what? He’s not a favorite? WAIT, WHAT? HE’S NOT EVEN NOMINATED?! One of the biggest Oscar travesties if there ever was one is the fact poor Ben was not nominated for Best Director this year. he has won every single major award, as basically a middle finger to the academy. David O. Russell is nominated again, but his same, choppy filmmaking style is not going to get him the award again this year. This is a two way race, between Ang Lee and Sir (he’s not actually knighted) Steven Spielberg. Ang Lee took a seemingly impossible book to adapt to the big screen, “Life of Pi”, and turned it into an entertaining, visual wonder that was critically adored and actually made a lot of money worldwide. Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln”, which he supposedly took about ten years to completely make, is the other man in the race. Spielberg is obviously a film legend, and any chance or hope to see him speak to millions is always a treat, and I would love to see nothing more than to see Spielberg fly a bicycle onto the stage and accept his award.
JUSTIN: I hate this category so much because it has disappointed me in the last couple years. Two years ago, David Fincher got screwed out of an award that went to a guy that made a cookie cutter period drama. Last year was just a disaster all-around. This year, not one but TWO of the best directors got boned. Affleck and Bigelow were definitely better than the guy who did “Amour”. Just hand the award to Spielberg and let’s move on. #FreeBigalow #FreeAffleck
Finally, last but not least,
BEST PICTURE:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
JUSTIN: As much as I want “Les Mis” to win, Russell Crowe brings down the movie. It’s very sad. Right now, it’s a three-man race between “Lincoln”, “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Argo”. “Lincoln" was plugging away for awhile as the favorite before “Argo” started wreaking havoc over the DGA’s, WGA’s, SAG’s. It’s been an unstoppable force. With that said, I felt that “Zero Dark Thirty” was the best film this year and my hope is that will carry over to the ceremony. It may be an emotional decision, but what’s life without a little bias?
P.S.: I’m gonna kill, Zach. It’s already been decided.
ZACH: This is it Justin! I get the last Hoorah! This will be the final pick that will cement my easy victory over you. even if I get this one wrong, it won’t matter, because I’ll already have such a commanding lead over you.
But I won’t be wrong about this one either. “Argo” and Ben Affleck was snubbed by the academy, and the only true way to recognize this fatal mistake is to recognize it for the thrilling, excellent film it is: as the Best Picture of 2012. Lincoln led in nominations, and could possibly steal this one away, but if that happens I’m going to go burn some top hats, because Lincoln is not the BEST film I saw this year. it was a good film, but not great. Yet again, this is the same academy that chose “Gandhi” over “E.T.” and “Tootsie”, two classic entertaining films compared to the snooze fest of “Gandhi”.
There is no race here Justin. “ZD30” is too controversial to win, and that will cause it to be lower on some ballots, which spells no victory. Thank you for picking it though, because it definitely will not win. I guarantee it. I will dance around in a pink tutu in in the middle of Michigan Avenue if that happens. That’s how confident I am that it will not win, and you definitely won’t win. “Argo" has this one in the bag.
- Thank you everyone for reading this, and we hope you can use our picks to help you in office pools, or when you go to a party and have no idea who to pick. Refer to this contest between brothers, and you can make more educated choices about whom to pick. We will see what happens on Sunday night, but ultimately hope for a good show. Have a great Oscar Sunday everybody!
FEBRUARY 27, 2012
Justin vs. Zach
Oscar Predictions 2012
My brother Justin and I are here for your convenience folks. The Oscars always offer us the most entertaining predictions of the season, and me and my brother will be competing to see who truly is the master of guessing what 65 year old white people will vote. We haven’t seen all of them (although Justin will be seeing three more of them on Saturday) but we can have our fingers on the pulse of the awards season. Whether it is best picture or those extremely aggravating small categories about less than .05% of the population, we’ll try to consider overall consensus from around the web. SO, without further ado, let’s begin the EPIC BATTLE OF OSCAR VOTING! JUSTIN VS. ZACH!
Let’s start with the smallest of categories:
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
The Shore
Pentecost
Raju
Tuba Atlantic
Time Freak
ZACH: A lot has been talked around the web about the short film The Shore, and according to most, it has the best odds of winning. While Raju is indeed the only serious movie in the category while the rest are comedies, I believe there is something to be said about having a popular short film. The rest don’t even have respectable odds in this category to be considered as legitimate contenders. The Shore also seems to be talked about blending in well deserved filming and directing, that is the reason I give the edge to THE SHORE in this category.
JUSTIN: I will admit that this is basically the first time looking at this list of nominees. When the nominees first came out, I only IMDB’d Time Freak because it had an interesting title and as I now know, an interesting plot. But when I tried to YouTube all of these short films to find out a little bit about them, I found out that they are nowhere to be found on the site. This appeals me. I understand the Academy ropes it viewers into screenings of these films and the filmmakers like to be guarded about their work since the old farts in California vote, but how could you only release the trailer for the movie and not the whole thing? It rattles my brain. If the directors put out the full thing on YouTube, they will get a lot of exposure and generate some buzz. People will make the commitment to watching them because they are only 12 minutes a piece of quality work. ANYWAY, due to my limited knowledge of this category, I am going to my oldest crutch when making a decision that involves multiple things I know little about: Pick the coolest sounding name. This year’s coolest sounding Live Action Short film is Time Freak and is thus my choice to win the category.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Saving Face
Incident in New Baghdad
The Barber in Birmingham
God is the Bigger Elvis
JUSTIN: Another category in which I know nothing about any of the nominees. I’m sure each short is special in its own little way but sorry hardworking filmmakers, I cannot make any analytical decision about you. I am choosing God is the Bigger Elvis as my winner because you simply cannot choose against the hound dog, especially when he is being compared to Him.
ZACH: After some rambling by Justin, I’m sure you all want to see a more analytical and practical approach to making this decision. Around the web people are giving The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom the edge compared to a relatively close second by Saving Face. Saving Face is a film that takes place in Pakistan while Cherry Blossom is a film directly out of Japan. Based on last year’s surprising win by a Japanese foreign film, I believe the academy might have a slight bias towards the Japanese film, as well as the fact that their film takes up a much larger national issue. That is why my pick will have to be The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom in this category.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna(The moon)
A Morning Stroll
Dimanche(Sunday)
Wild Life
ZACH: Finally our last pain-in-the-neck category, and this one might be the toughest of the short film categories. People really want to all pick La Luna because it is the only one they have seen being that it is a Pixar animated short. Pixar has been nominated 6 of the last 10 years, and failed to come away with the award. Meanwhile Mr. Morris Lessmore, with a title probably just as long as the film itself, has a slight edge in the critics circle. However, since all of these are seen in bunches, I believe the animated film that manges to tell a wild story with vivid colors, and manage to use 3 different types of animation within a short period of time makes the largest impact of the group. Therefore, I am going to pick A Morning Stroll for its ingenuity and most likely film to impress the voters within a short time period.
JUSTIN: Zachary, I apologize for not knowing what the nominees for the shorts are. I guess it makes me less of a man. Happy? Anyway, I don’t anything about this category either and frankly I don’t care. But when you mentioned that Pixar had a horse in this race, I automatically picked La Luna (The Moon).
Now on to some more “realistic” categories:
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Drive
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
JUSTIN: This category has routinely been dominated by action films or movies that involve a lot of fantasy because the gives the editors a lot of creativity to play with. Even though the other four nominees are better than Dark of the Moon, this category is strictly for the blind. And if the blind could choose which movie sounds the best, it would be Dark of the Moon because it sounds like an awesome combination of Skrillex and NASCAR races. That is why I am choosing Transformers.
ZACH: Oh, Justin, you make me laugh sometimes. If a blind person heard Dark of the Moon, they would pray to the Lord himself and ask to be deaf as well .Any action movie can sound like a bunch of metal clanging together. The two it comes down to in this category are War Horse and Hugo. While War Horse is driven by sound, Hugo is driven by special effects. Hugo does have a shot at best picture, which makes me think that they might choose it. However, I will be going with the only war movie on the ballot, War Horse is the clear choice here.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Hugo
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
ZACH: This category pretty much depends on who wins the first sound category presented on the night. Usually, the movie that wins for one, wins for the other. Therefore, since I predicted War Horse previously, I have no shame in it sweeping the sound categories on Oscar night. My pick is War Horse.
JUSTIN: I agree with Zach, I have no shame in picking the same movie for Sound Mixing because it is a lock. Yes, a lock. Dark of the Moon it is.
BEST SCORE:
The Adventures of Tintin
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Hugo
The Artist
War Horse
JUSTIN: Choosing the Best Score is difficult for me because I am not very good at choosing what scores are better than others because they all kinda sound the same to me and after the movie I forget all about them. But if I had to choose one score to win, it would be The Artist. The Artist is a silent film and is focused around having good sound. If it doesn’t have a good score, it fails as a movie.
ZACH: Immediately here, we can eliminate Tintin and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The fact they have nominations should be celebratory enough for them, but neither are nominated for best picture. Now Hugo was known for effects, not the sound so much, even though it is mainly about silent films. That leaves us with War Horse and The Artist. While Hugo is a movie about some silent film making, the academy undoubtedly will want to recognize a film that had to be driven by its score because it was silent. Since John Williams has already had plenty of success in this category before, its time for a new winner. The clear front runner and easy pick here would have to be The Artist.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Man or Muppet (The Muppets)
Real in Rio (Rio)
ZACH: Ladies and gentleman, let me start by saying this loud and proud: THE MUPPETS ARE FINALLY BACK! Growing up as a child admiring the quick, witty humor of these masterful puppets was a delight, and no film had more buzz surrounding it this year than The Muppets. Not only will over half of the TV viewing audience riot if this beloved film doesn’t snag an Oscar, especially after it’s performed on stage, but it would literally break my heart. All I have to say is that “I am a Muppet of a man!” The Muppets takes it home.
JUSTIN: Rio may be a fine animated film as it was well liked by many people but that means nothing when it is up against The Muppets. The Muppets rule all musical categories no matter the awards show. “Man or Muppet” was the best (and definitely the funniest) film song I heard all year. Plus Bret from Flight of the Conchords wrote it, so how can it not win!
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
JUSTIN: Best Visual Effects usually awards the film with the most eye-popping CGI film of the year. Well, reader, I have good news for you! We have TWO very graphic films this year that are make your eyes peel. Harry Potter uses CGI more cinematically and you remember the scenes which they use it like The Room of Requirement and Heaven. Transformers, on the other hand, make you feel like you are going through REM without actually being asleep. All that aside, Transformers pulls this one out because it is so much more “out there” than the other nominees.
ZACH: Justin! When will you learn that not only is Transformers pure Hollywood trash, but the academy will never recognize it as an Oscar winner this year.
This category has an interesting little battle going on this year. Hugo and Planet of the Apes both have different visuals going against each other. Hugo used 3-D in such a way, that it dominated the talk and buzz about the film, and how the format of 3-D finally was used as a truly powerful asset of film-making. Meanwhile Planet of the Apes introduced new technology of creating powerful motion-capture apes. Andy Serkis was even considered to be a possible nominee as a motion capture performance because of the way the technology can blend so well into the film. Transformers and Real Steel knock each other out because they are so similar, and Harry Potter has never won the category, and this year doesn’t look any different. While Hugo might have been a better film overall, if there is groundbreaking technology that can make me feel emotional about a possibly destructive ape, then I have no choice but to give Rise of the Planet of the Apes my pick for the category.
BEST MAKEUP:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
The Iron Lady
ZACH: At least they didn’t nominate J. Edgar in this category, showing us the academy is not completely clueless at times. The category always seems to lean towards those movies that deal royalty. Harry Potter got the nomination out of respect, and Albert Nobbs shows a little bit too much makeup. However, making Meryll Streep look just like Margaret Thatcher, and dressing up others around her to picture perfect historical perfection; it seems to me that The Iron Lady picks up this Oscar.
JUSTIN:This is an easy one. The winner is far and away Albert Nobbs. The make up artists made Glenn Close like a man so much in the posters that I thought she was going to get a Best Actress nom just by glancing at the poster.
BEST EDITING:
Drive
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
JUSTIN: I feel that editing in film is like offensive lineman in football. When the editing is good, nobody knows it because it is so seamless and natural that nobody notices it. But when its awful, everyone in the audience can see the flaws. The opening credits of Dragon Tattoo were so great that scene alone is worthy of a statue.Hugo was one of my favorite films of the year but I think Dragon Tattoo sealed it with one of the weirdest opening scenes ever.
ZACH: After seeing the opening sequence of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, I was almost ready to give the editing Oscar to it right then and there. However, after the academy failed to give Dragon Tattoo a best picture nomination, I have to focus on those films instead. Here it seems pretty obvious the voters pick the most challenging movie that succeeded in editing. While all the other films on this list seem to move at a normal place and editing isn’t truly a notable trait. The Artist editors had to deal with no sound, and base all their decisions on the movements of actors. Since the academy loves The Artist this year, and the fact that it is a challenging feat to edit a silent film like this one, my head and heart tell me to go with The Artist.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
The Artist
Anonymous
W.E.
Jane Eyre
Hugo
JUSTIN: Zach, I didn’t know if you knew this, but the Academy is full of old people, and old people just so happened to like things that are old! With that in mind, we can easily eliminate Hugo, The Artist, and W.E. That leaves us with Anonymous and Jane Eyre. Jane Eyre is about people that live in the 1800’s and wear very elegant clothes, which is important in the Best Costume Design category. However, Anonymous takes place before Eyre in Shakespeare’s day and all they did was wear fancy clothes. Since these clothes are older, the Academy will gravitate to them like zombies towards living flesh. Anonymous wins this one because of the old Academy rule: the older the clothes, the more likely to win an Oscar.
ZACH: This is one of the rare categories that is up in the air this year. Usually it would go to a movie like Anonymous or Jane Eyre, which are both period pieces and usually take home the prize. However, I believe The Artist being nominated in this category tells us it will be going home with more than a few Oscars this year, and it throughout the movie they had to put on nice clothes that had to be glamorous enough to stick out in a black and white movie. Remember, with a silent film, we are always making an impression on the actors by how they act, but also by what they wear. Justin isn’t completely delusional picking Anonymous, but his head isn’t quite in the right place, and The Artist takes home the prize in this category.
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Hugo
The Artist
JUSTIN: Art Direction is an award for the people who can create the most elegant sets. HP, Midnight in Paris, and Hugo do this all very, very well. But Hugo stands out here because the set designers created an entire world within the train station that is entirely original. Midnight does a good job of depicting 1920’s Paris but Hugo is something special. The film may take place in Paris but you would never know it because the train station feels like an entirely different place.That’s what you remember about a film.
ZACH: Yet again, we find a field between our two top contenders on the night: Hugo and The Artist. Midnight in Paris looks great, but you can thank the skyline of Paris for that nice sight on the eyes throughout the movie. Hugo may take place in Paris, but the sets in both the magnificent train station world Martin Scorsese creates, and the great glass house form the past of Ben Kingsley’s character give this film an astounding edge in this category. The Artist uses various set designs, but only so much can stick out when your film is in black and white. That is why I give the edge to Hugo in this category, as it is also the favorite amongst the circle of critics throughout the community.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
ZACH: This category is about the use create vivid pictures with the camera and blending color and movement into perfect clarity and motion within the flow of the movie itself. The film that has the most going for it in this category is easily The Tree of Life, blending numerous time lines back and forth while trying to maintain the main focus of the film. Even if it didn’t get a best picture nod this year, it was projected by everyone it would at least be the favorite coming into this category. The vivid imagery and importance of cinematography gives The Tree of Life , my pick, the competitive edge here in this category, unless we see The Artist sweep everything during the night.
JUSTIN: I can see where you are coming from, Zach. You didn’t see the The Tree of Life so really don’t know how weird it was watching the first half hour. The Academy loves really weird things and i cannot remember a movie this visually disproportionate since 2001: A Space Odyessey (it is no coincidence that the visual effects guy from 2001 worked on The Tree of Life). It is really hard to be rational with this pick because I love how Martin Scorcese dominated and used the 3-D in Hugo so much that it is clouding my judgement (and that’s a good thing). The execution of Robert Richardson and Scorcese in Hugo overcomes the weirdly stunning images of The Big Bang and dinosaurs in The Tree of Life. So I have to go with Hugo here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
If a Tree Falls
Undefeated
Hell and Back Again
Pina
Paradise Lost 3
JUSTIN: The only film in this category I have heard of is Undefeated, which is a tale of a high school football team. Stories about high school football are usually some of the most inspiring and entertaining ones ever. Just look at Friday Night Lights! With all that said, nothing will stop the gigantic freight train that is Paradise Lost 3. This project, about the West Memphis murders, has been one of the most tumultuous in recent memory and is only here today because of Peter Jackson. PL3 is just too much of an emotional topic and film that it won’t be toppled by anything else.
ZACH: The Documentary category always seems to pull an upset here, which is why I feel Undefeated, the high school football story, might be just the film to do so, but after hearing how emotional Sundance was after watching this movie, and hearing about all the effort from its two directors to finally acquit the West Memphis Three, I believe that Paradise Lost 3 will come away with the victory here. Also, it does hurt that PL3 has Peter Jackson’s name attached to it as well.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Puss in Boots
Chico and Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Rango
A Cat in Paris
ZACH: Out of every category here, this might be the easiest to choose. We can quickly get rid of A Cat in Paris and Chico and Rita, because most of the academy, like America, has never even seen these films before. Then Kung Fu Panda 2, while much improved over its original, wasn’t anything spectacular, and Puss in Boots was a halfway decent spin-off that landed a nomination simply because the field is not relatively strong this year considering Pixar flubbed for the first time ever with Cars 2. The only film to push some boundaries, and mange to tell a good story and show wild creativity is Rango, which has been pick unanimously by all the critics to pick up this award with ease. The easiest pick for anyone on this ballot on Oscar night will be to pick Rango.
JUSTIN: This is one of the weakest animated film fields in the last few years as there are very few “name” films and a lot of foreign ones. Kung Fu Panda 2, Rango, and Puss in Boots are the only ones anybody recognize and since Panda and Puss aren’t very good, Rango is the only logical option left. It is a kid’s movie that really isn’t a kid’s movie and is only the quality flick so we have to pick it as the winner.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
In Darkness
Footnoote
A Separation
Bullhead
Monsieur Lazhar
JUSTIN: The Foreign Film category is sometimes considered an afterthought because there are usually films that nobody has heard of but there are two major exception this year: A Separation and Bullhead. A Separation has been at the top of nearly every movie critic’s “Best Movies of 2011” list, including Roger Ebert who declared it top dog of 2011. When it not has been put on a pedestal by critics, it has received fairly good buzz and will win the Oscar easily.
ZACH: No question here, A Separation is the op dog leading this race. Not only has it been nominated for Best Foreign Film, but also has garnered a nomination for writing. That type of recognition for a foreign film is very rare. Also, like Justin said above(and something we can finally agree on) the critics have praised this film to the high heavens. The only thing stopping it from winning is bitter old people who don’t want to vote for anything from the Middle East, especially with the increased nuclear tension that has spiked our oil prices as of late. But, who knows, maybe the win will help ease the tension. I say, go with A Separation here.
Now it is time for the real meat and potatoes of Oscar night, the writing and acting awards, and of course Best picture. Sadly, there are so many contests before the Oscars, these categories become more and more predictable every year, but you never know...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Moneyball
Hugo
The Ides of March
The Descendants
ZACH: At the end of the day, this category comes down to two films driven by their words more than their actions. Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and The Ides of March didn’t come anywhere close to being a movie driven by its words. Mostly it was the actors and actresses, or visuals for Hugo, delivering those words that helped edge those films into this category. That leaves Moneyball and The Descendants. When it was first announced Moneyball, based on a book about a general manager turning the game of baseball around, would be just another cliche sports movie. However, Aaron Sorkin worked magic again this year and managed to make the script define what Billy Beane did as a complete game changer. Unfortunately, The Descendants has been pulling out with every major win from the Golden Globes to the WGA’s win for its script and its ability to humanize an emotionally unstable family. Alexander Payne deserves recognition for once on stage at the academy, so The Decendants is my choice, even though based on degree of difficulty I would give it to Moneyball.
JUSTIN: This category on the surface seems like it is close because Moneyball has two of the greatest writers in the biz tabbed to it in Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zailian but the buzz has forever been pointing towards The Descendents and Alexander Payne’s return from his seven year sabbatical from film to win this. Plus, Jim Rash (Dean Pelton on Community) is credited with co-writing the flick so how could it not win?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Bridesmaids
A Separation
Margin Call
JUSTIN: Yet another category that pulls my heart and my head into two different directions. On one hand Bridesmaids was one of the funniest movies of the year, where there were some legitimate gut-busting moments. But on the other, I know that the Academy of super old white guys is going to support one of their own in Woody Allen with an Oscar. This depresses me because Bridesmaids was a much funnier film but when I get to be super old I will change the thinking of the Academy.
ZACH: Let’s face it folks, there would be no greater pleasure than to see Bridesmaids take home the Oscar for its outstandingly witty, clever, and touching comedy by the extremely talented Kristin Wigg and co. However, we must also face the fact that the academy truly does not like to represent comedy in the winners category on its glorious night in front of a nation that adores it. If The Artist manages to sweep every category before it, we might be in for a surprise here, but I can’t really see a script that ends up using a few lines of dialogue to truly be worthy of winning a writing Oscar. Midnight in Paris has been the front runner here for some time, and there is a good reason for that. It manages to blend the beauty of Paris within every conversation, the struggles and hopes of relationships, and also be a great history lesson for American literature. Also, Woody Allen’s script so deftly blends hysteria and charm that it seems to me no other script, besides Bridesmaids, matches up with it. That is why Midnight in Paris should win, and why it will win. Let’s just hope Woody Allen can show up to accept the award (he has been nominated several times in the past, but only has come to one Oscars show ever).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
ZACH: This catgory is telling me that in Hollywood, 82 is the new 30. Generally this category is used to pick a winner of a new up and coming actor that is ready to take on larger roles after succeeding so well in a supporting role. However, Christopher Plummer and Max von Sydow are both 82, and will become the oldest winners ever in Oscar history if either of them is to win. Christopher Plummer has literally been wiping the rest of the competition out with ease this year, and all that walking to the podium has probably damaged any further roles for while. Plummer plays an 82 year old man who just is finally coming out of the closet, and if you know Hollywood and the academy, they love the gay storylines as of recently. Just look art when Milk took home some acting awards a few years ago. Considering the only other competitor in this category would be Albert Brooks form Drive, who didn’t even get nominated, Christopher Plummer has this own sewn up tight. Let’s just hope he can make it up the ramp to the stage.
JUSTIN: As the Academy has told us in the past and will continue to tell us: the older you are, the more likely you are to win. In this category we have four elderly actors and one relatively young one. Sorry Fat Jonah Hill, the odds are stacked against you. Nick Nolte won’t win because Warrior isn’t nominated for anything else and is seen as a good not great film. Christopher Plummer is the most likely one to win because he already a Golden Globe and countless others this season.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
JUSTIN: Some categories have nominees so special that you just have to throw rationale out the window and take the crowd favorite. Melissa McCarthy’s hilarious supporting job in Bridesmaids separates her so much from the rest of the field that it shouldn’t even be close. Unfortunately, everybody else is playing very serious roles that have to do with solving racial issues, reviving a silent actor’s career, and helping a woman look and fit in like a man. Boring. Octavia Spencer may be the favorite here but it’s my pick dammit and I will do whatever I please with it. Melissa McCarthy it is!
ZACH: I want to make this category as simple as possible to choose. While everybody absolutely adored Melissa McCarthy for her scene stealing turn in Bridesmaids, unfortunately,like Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder last year, a nomination for an outstanding comedic role that deserves an Oscar is as far as you are going to get. Bejo might steal the award away if we find out the academy is in love with The Artist, but let’s get real, the true story of the acting world this year was the powerful film The Help. Jessicas Chastain plays the evil white woman in the film, so going against her nemesis in the movie, Octavia Spencer, truly doesn’t help her out. Octavia Spencer also has all the major awards in her favor from the SGA to the Golden Globes and many others. So while I would love to see Melissa McCarthy win it here, The Help and Octavia Spencer have a best picture nomination and to much going for it and make my pick for Spencer much more clear cut.
BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
ZACH: The Oscars come on so late, that it takes a little excitement out of the air. While it is great to finally see Gary Oldman in this category, he has no chance of pulling out this victory. Brad Pitt picked up steam out of the gate during awards season, but his chances seem to have dwindled not picking up any major wins at any of the awards show. Demian Bichir is a great story, coming out of nowhere to pick up a nomination, but a film seen by little usually doesn’t have a prayer at winning. Now, everyone knows and loves George Clooney, and secretly root for the man every year he is nominated. While I think George Clooney might be more deserving of the award, every year I pick the close second person to win and every year it fails me. The front-runner and winner of every major acting award has been Dujardin. The academy wants to recognize the great feat of taking on such a large role as to be front and center of a silent movie, and that is what I believe will happen in the end. Jean Dujardin comes away with the victory here, but it is close.
JUSTIN: Every time George Clooney gets nominated for Best Actor, everybody gets into a frenzy about how this latest performance is “the bane of his career” or something crazy like that. In 2007, he was nominated for Up in the Air and everybody was praising him left and right. This year is no different. “Clooney’s has performed his absolute best in this one” - said everyone. I am out of jokes but this would be an easy Clooney win if it weren’t for Jean Dujardin and The Artist. It has fascinated so people this year that it might sweep every major category this year. But I still believe our American hero George Clooney will pull out the win over the conniving Frenchman. Go Clooney!
BEST ACTRESS:
Viola Davis (The Help)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
JUSTIN: This category should be a no-brainer and Meryl Streep should take home the Oscar simply because she is a national treasure and that’s the way it should be. But no, the voters are hesitating because she is only 2 for 17 (!) lifetime at the Oscars and can never recognize her talent. Glenn Close does a great job masquerading as a man but Streep is so much more talented than the field. Rooney Mara is deserving but she has to be happy just to be there. Viola Davis is seen as the favorite and this is her time to win the statue so it kills me to go against one of the industry’s greatest actresses here. Sorry, Meryl. It’s Viola Davis.
ZACH: Yet again, the category comes down to two people, and leaving the others in the dust to give a 3 second fake smile during the ceremony. Meryl Streep seems to be the obvious choice, but the powerful woman in the group with all the momentum is Viola Davis, for her work leading the social change in the immensely popular box office hit The Help. The movie seems to have taken voters by storm as well, probably hearing from their peers how good the film was, and therefore will give Viola Davis the edge on Streep. Based on how the two movies were received (The Iron Lady had middle to bad reviews), I give Viola Davis the victory here.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Martin Scorcese (Hugo)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
ZACH: There is one golden rule for this category over the past 70 plus years, never bet against the DGA. It has been well documented that the winner of the DGA award for best director and the Oscars have only gone against each other 3 times. This year’s winner was Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, and his ability to make a complete full length feature film from silent film making is a film making achievement within itself. If there was someone to pull an upset, it would be Scorcese, for his incredible work of using 3-D to enhance a film for once, but also creating a truly magnificent story about the history of movies as well. Unfortunately, even though I think Scorcese should win, Michel Hazanavicius will win based on the golden rule.
JUSTIN: Malik will receive some consideration here for creating the very odd and bizarre Tree of Life but everyone will realize the film is nuts and throw him out of contention. Woody Allen and Martin Scorcese give solid efforts and provided some memorable moments this year but the winner will be Frenchman Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist. The Academy is still dumbfounded that somebody would have the balls to make a silent film in this age of filmmaking that they have no choice to honor the work. Good job Michel.
Finally, last but not least,
BEST PICTURE:
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Tree of Life
War Horse
JUSTIN: In his Grantland column today, Oscarologist Mark Harris said that this is not the strongest year for Best Picture nominees and everybody who didn’t think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close should have got nominate agrees (myself included). There is a lot of iffy films in here like The Tree of Life, which I wasn’t as enamored with as everyone else. With the field being so diluted this year, the voters are looking to see which one brings out the most unique qualities and The Artist does in full force. It’s a silent film for goodness sakes! Hugo was my favorite film of the year and I cannot wait to see it in 3-D again soon. But The Artist is simply the most polarizing film of the year and it will be rewarded as such with the Best Picture Oscar.
ZACH: We are finally here, the “Best Picture” category. Like Justin said before, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close does not deserve to be in this category at all. They might as well have given Transformers the nod. Instead, the nomination should have gone to Bridesmaids, an would have easily increased the ratings by a Nielsen point or two. Either way, another film that could have a slight chance at pulling a “Rocky”-type upset would be The Help. The Help easily grossed the most money out of any of the films, and it did so by creating a whirlwind of buzz and inspiration around the film. IN the end, the two films with the most nominations are The Artist and Hugo, and those generally are the films that contend for the title every year. Hugo’s momentum has died incredibly fast as of late, while The Artist has tap-danced its way into the winners circle at previous awards shows. The Artist silently will dance into the winner’s circle as well on Oscar night, and take home the top prize, and make Harvey Weinstein’s ego even greater.
-Well, that does it. After 3 days of intense thinking, we are finally done. While Justin and I disagreed a lot from the beginning to the middle, the overall larger categories are generally to easy to predict these days than ever before. We hope this helps you win a small amount of cash in whatever Oscar pool you might be in. This is a great site, so keep coming back for more great things to read.
Oscar Predictions 2012
My brother Justin and I are here for your convenience folks. The Oscars always offer us the most entertaining predictions of the season, and me and my brother will be competing to see who truly is the master of guessing what 65 year old white people will vote. We haven’t seen all of them (although Justin will be seeing three more of them on Saturday) but we can have our fingers on the pulse of the awards season. Whether it is best picture or those extremely aggravating small categories about less than .05% of the population, we’ll try to consider overall consensus from around the web. SO, without further ado, let’s begin the EPIC BATTLE OF OSCAR VOTING! JUSTIN VS. ZACH!
Let’s start with the smallest of categories:
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
The Shore
Pentecost
Raju
Tuba Atlantic
Time Freak
ZACH: A lot has been talked around the web about the short film The Shore, and according to most, it has the best odds of winning. While Raju is indeed the only serious movie in the category while the rest are comedies, I believe there is something to be said about having a popular short film. The rest don’t even have respectable odds in this category to be considered as legitimate contenders. The Shore also seems to be talked about blending in well deserved filming and directing, that is the reason I give the edge to THE SHORE in this category.
JUSTIN: I will admit that this is basically the first time looking at this list of nominees. When the nominees first came out, I only IMDB’d Time Freak because it had an interesting title and as I now know, an interesting plot. But when I tried to YouTube all of these short films to find out a little bit about them, I found out that they are nowhere to be found on the site. This appeals me. I understand the Academy ropes it viewers into screenings of these films and the filmmakers like to be guarded about their work since the old farts in California vote, but how could you only release the trailer for the movie and not the whole thing? It rattles my brain. If the directors put out the full thing on YouTube, they will get a lot of exposure and generate some buzz. People will make the commitment to watching them because they are only 12 minutes a piece of quality work. ANYWAY, due to my limited knowledge of this category, I am going to my oldest crutch when making a decision that involves multiple things I know little about: Pick the coolest sounding name. This year’s coolest sounding Live Action Short film is Time Freak and is thus my choice to win the category.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Saving Face
Incident in New Baghdad
The Barber in Birmingham
God is the Bigger Elvis
JUSTIN: Another category in which I know nothing about any of the nominees. I’m sure each short is special in its own little way but sorry hardworking filmmakers, I cannot make any analytical decision about you. I am choosing God is the Bigger Elvis as my winner because you simply cannot choose against the hound dog, especially when he is being compared to Him.
ZACH: After some rambling by Justin, I’m sure you all want to see a more analytical and practical approach to making this decision. Around the web people are giving The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom the edge compared to a relatively close second by Saving Face. Saving Face is a film that takes place in Pakistan while Cherry Blossom is a film directly out of Japan. Based on last year’s surprising win by a Japanese foreign film, I believe the academy might have a slight bias towards the Japanese film, as well as the fact that their film takes up a much larger national issue. That is why my pick will have to be The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom in this category.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna(The moon)
A Morning Stroll
Dimanche(Sunday)
Wild Life
ZACH: Finally our last pain-in-the-neck category, and this one might be the toughest of the short film categories. People really want to all pick La Luna because it is the only one they have seen being that it is a Pixar animated short. Pixar has been nominated 6 of the last 10 years, and failed to come away with the award. Meanwhile Mr. Morris Lessmore, with a title probably just as long as the film itself, has a slight edge in the critics circle. However, since all of these are seen in bunches, I believe the animated film that manges to tell a wild story with vivid colors, and manage to use 3 different types of animation within a short period of time makes the largest impact of the group. Therefore, I am going to pick A Morning Stroll for its ingenuity and most likely film to impress the voters within a short time period.
JUSTIN: Zachary, I apologize for not knowing what the nominees for the shorts are. I guess it makes me less of a man. Happy? Anyway, I don’t anything about this category either and frankly I don’t care. But when you mentioned that Pixar had a horse in this race, I automatically picked La Luna (The Moon).
Now on to some more “realistic” categories:
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Drive
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
JUSTIN: This category has routinely been dominated by action films or movies that involve a lot of fantasy because the gives the editors a lot of creativity to play with. Even though the other four nominees are better than Dark of the Moon, this category is strictly for the blind. And if the blind could choose which movie sounds the best, it would be Dark of the Moon because it sounds like an awesome combination of Skrillex and NASCAR races. That is why I am choosing Transformers.
ZACH: Oh, Justin, you make me laugh sometimes. If a blind person heard Dark of the Moon, they would pray to the Lord himself and ask to be deaf as well .Any action movie can sound like a bunch of metal clanging together. The two it comes down to in this category are War Horse and Hugo. While War Horse is driven by sound, Hugo is driven by special effects. Hugo does have a shot at best picture, which makes me think that they might choose it. However, I will be going with the only war movie on the ballot, War Horse is the clear choice here.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Hugo
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
ZACH: This category pretty much depends on who wins the first sound category presented on the night. Usually, the movie that wins for one, wins for the other. Therefore, since I predicted War Horse previously, I have no shame in it sweeping the sound categories on Oscar night. My pick is War Horse.
JUSTIN: I agree with Zach, I have no shame in picking the same movie for Sound Mixing because it is a lock. Yes, a lock. Dark of the Moon it is.
BEST SCORE:
The Adventures of Tintin
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Hugo
The Artist
War Horse
JUSTIN: Choosing the Best Score is difficult for me because I am not very good at choosing what scores are better than others because they all kinda sound the same to me and after the movie I forget all about them. But if I had to choose one score to win, it would be The Artist. The Artist is a silent film and is focused around having good sound. If it doesn’t have a good score, it fails as a movie.
ZACH: Immediately here, we can eliminate Tintin and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The fact they have nominations should be celebratory enough for them, but neither are nominated for best picture. Now Hugo was known for effects, not the sound so much, even though it is mainly about silent films. That leaves us with War Horse and The Artist. While Hugo is a movie about some silent film making, the academy undoubtedly will want to recognize a film that had to be driven by its score because it was silent. Since John Williams has already had plenty of success in this category before, its time for a new winner. The clear front runner and easy pick here would have to be The Artist.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Man or Muppet (The Muppets)
Real in Rio (Rio)
ZACH: Ladies and gentleman, let me start by saying this loud and proud: THE MUPPETS ARE FINALLY BACK! Growing up as a child admiring the quick, witty humor of these masterful puppets was a delight, and no film had more buzz surrounding it this year than The Muppets. Not only will over half of the TV viewing audience riot if this beloved film doesn’t snag an Oscar, especially after it’s performed on stage, but it would literally break my heart. All I have to say is that “I am a Muppet of a man!” The Muppets takes it home.
JUSTIN: Rio may be a fine animated film as it was well liked by many people but that means nothing when it is up against The Muppets. The Muppets rule all musical categories no matter the awards show. “Man or Muppet” was the best (and definitely the funniest) film song I heard all year. Plus Bret from Flight of the Conchords wrote it, so how can it not win!
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
JUSTIN: Best Visual Effects usually awards the film with the most eye-popping CGI film of the year. Well, reader, I have good news for you! We have TWO very graphic films this year that are make your eyes peel. Harry Potter uses CGI more cinematically and you remember the scenes which they use it like The Room of Requirement and Heaven. Transformers, on the other hand, make you feel like you are going through REM without actually being asleep. All that aside, Transformers pulls this one out because it is so much more “out there” than the other nominees.
ZACH: Justin! When will you learn that not only is Transformers pure Hollywood trash, but the academy will never recognize it as an Oscar winner this year.
This category has an interesting little battle going on this year. Hugo and Planet of the Apes both have different visuals going against each other. Hugo used 3-D in such a way, that it dominated the talk and buzz about the film, and how the format of 3-D finally was used as a truly powerful asset of film-making. Meanwhile Planet of the Apes introduced new technology of creating powerful motion-capture apes. Andy Serkis was even considered to be a possible nominee as a motion capture performance because of the way the technology can blend so well into the film. Transformers and Real Steel knock each other out because they are so similar, and Harry Potter has never won the category, and this year doesn’t look any different. While Hugo might have been a better film overall, if there is groundbreaking technology that can make me feel emotional about a possibly destructive ape, then I have no choice but to give Rise of the Planet of the Apes my pick for the category.
BEST MAKEUP:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
The Iron Lady
ZACH: At least they didn’t nominate J. Edgar in this category, showing us the academy is not completely clueless at times. The category always seems to lean towards those movies that deal royalty. Harry Potter got the nomination out of respect, and Albert Nobbs shows a little bit too much makeup. However, making Meryll Streep look just like Margaret Thatcher, and dressing up others around her to picture perfect historical perfection; it seems to me that The Iron Lady picks up this Oscar.
JUSTIN:This is an easy one. The winner is far and away Albert Nobbs. The make up artists made Glenn Close like a man so much in the posters that I thought she was going to get a Best Actress nom just by glancing at the poster.
BEST EDITING:
Drive
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
JUSTIN: I feel that editing in film is like offensive lineman in football. When the editing is good, nobody knows it because it is so seamless and natural that nobody notices it. But when its awful, everyone in the audience can see the flaws. The opening credits of Dragon Tattoo were so great that scene alone is worthy of a statue.Hugo was one of my favorite films of the year but I think Dragon Tattoo sealed it with one of the weirdest opening scenes ever.
ZACH: After seeing the opening sequence of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, I was almost ready to give the editing Oscar to it right then and there. However, after the academy failed to give Dragon Tattoo a best picture nomination, I have to focus on those films instead. Here it seems pretty obvious the voters pick the most challenging movie that succeeded in editing. While all the other films on this list seem to move at a normal place and editing isn’t truly a notable trait. The Artist editors had to deal with no sound, and base all their decisions on the movements of actors. Since the academy loves The Artist this year, and the fact that it is a challenging feat to edit a silent film like this one, my head and heart tell me to go with The Artist.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
The Artist
Anonymous
W.E.
Jane Eyre
Hugo
JUSTIN: Zach, I didn’t know if you knew this, but the Academy is full of old people, and old people just so happened to like things that are old! With that in mind, we can easily eliminate Hugo, The Artist, and W.E. That leaves us with Anonymous and Jane Eyre. Jane Eyre is about people that live in the 1800’s and wear very elegant clothes, which is important in the Best Costume Design category. However, Anonymous takes place before Eyre in Shakespeare’s day and all they did was wear fancy clothes. Since these clothes are older, the Academy will gravitate to them like zombies towards living flesh. Anonymous wins this one because of the old Academy rule: the older the clothes, the more likely to win an Oscar.
ZACH: This is one of the rare categories that is up in the air this year. Usually it would go to a movie like Anonymous or Jane Eyre, which are both period pieces and usually take home the prize. However, I believe The Artist being nominated in this category tells us it will be going home with more than a few Oscars this year, and it throughout the movie they had to put on nice clothes that had to be glamorous enough to stick out in a black and white movie. Remember, with a silent film, we are always making an impression on the actors by how they act, but also by what they wear. Justin isn’t completely delusional picking Anonymous, but his head isn’t quite in the right place, and The Artist takes home the prize in this category.
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Hugo
The Artist
JUSTIN: Art Direction is an award for the people who can create the most elegant sets. HP, Midnight in Paris, and Hugo do this all very, very well. But Hugo stands out here because the set designers created an entire world within the train station that is entirely original. Midnight does a good job of depicting 1920’s Paris but Hugo is something special. The film may take place in Paris but you would never know it because the train station feels like an entirely different place.That’s what you remember about a film.
ZACH: Yet again, we find a field between our two top contenders on the night: Hugo and The Artist. Midnight in Paris looks great, but you can thank the skyline of Paris for that nice sight on the eyes throughout the movie. Hugo may take place in Paris, but the sets in both the magnificent train station world Martin Scorsese creates, and the great glass house form the past of Ben Kingsley’s character give this film an astounding edge in this category. The Artist uses various set designs, but only so much can stick out when your film is in black and white. That is why I give the edge to Hugo in this category, as it is also the favorite amongst the circle of critics throughout the community.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
ZACH: This category is about the use create vivid pictures with the camera and blending color and movement into perfect clarity and motion within the flow of the movie itself. The film that has the most going for it in this category is easily The Tree of Life, blending numerous time lines back and forth while trying to maintain the main focus of the film. Even if it didn’t get a best picture nod this year, it was projected by everyone it would at least be the favorite coming into this category. The vivid imagery and importance of cinematography gives The Tree of Life , my pick, the competitive edge here in this category, unless we see The Artist sweep everything during the night.
JUSTIN: I can see where you are coming from, Zach. You didn’t see the The Tree of Life so really don’t know how weird it was watching the first half hour. The Academy loves really weird things and i cannot remember a movie this visually disproportionate since 2001: A Space Odyessey (it is no coincidence that the visual effects guy from 2001 worked on The Tree of Life). It is really hard to be rational with this pick because I love how Martin Scorcese dominated and used the 3-D in Hugo so much that it is clouding my judgement (and that’s a good thing). The execution of Robert Richardson and Scorcese in Hugo overcomes the weirdly stunning images of The Big Bang and dinosaurs in The Tree of Life. So I have to go with Hugo here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
If a Tree Falls
Undefeated
Hell and Back Again
Pina
Paradise Lost 3
JUSTIN: The only film in this category I have heard of is Undefeated, which is a tale of a high school football team. Stories about high school football are usually some of the most inspiring and entertaining ones ever. Just look at Friday Night Lights! With all that said, nothing will stop the gigantic freight train that is Paradise Lost 3. This project, about the West Memphis murders, has been one of the most tumultuous in recent memory and is only here today because of Peter Jackson. PL3 is just too much of an emotional topic and film that it won’t be toppled by anything else.
ZACH: The Documentary category always seems to pull an upset here, which is why I feel Undefeated, the high school football story, might be just the film to do so, but after hearing how emotional Sundance was after watching this movie, and hearing about all the effort from its two directors to finally acquit the West Memphis Three, I believe that Paradise Lost 3 will come away with the victory here. Also, it does hurt that PL3 has Peter Jackson’s name attached to it as well.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Puss in Boots
Chico and Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Rango
A Cat in Paris
ZACH: Out of every category here, this might be the easiest to choose. We can quickly get rid of A Cat in Paris and Chico and Rita, because most of the academy, like America, has never even seen these films before. Then Kung Fu Panda 2, while much improved over its original, wasn’t anything spectacular, and Puss in Boots was a halfway decent spin-off that landed a nomination simply because the field is not relatively strong this year considering Pixar flubbed for the first time ever with Cars 2. The only film to push some boundaries, and mange to tell a good story and show wild creativity is Rango, which has been pick unanimously by all the critics to pick up this award with ease. The easiest pick for anyone on this ballot on Oscar night will be to pick Rango.
JUSTIN: This is one of the weakest animated film fields in the last few years as there are very few “name” films and a lot of foreign ones. Kung Fu Panda 2, Rango, and Puss in Boots are the only ones anybody recognize and since Panda and Puss aren’t very good, Rango is the only logical option left. It is a kid’s movie that really isn’t a kid’s movie and is only the quality flick so we have to pick it as the winner.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
In Darkness
Footnoote
A Separation
Bullhead
Monsieur Lazhar
JUSTIN: The Foreign Film category is sometimes considered an afterthought because there are usually films that nobody has heard of but there are two major exception this year: A Separation and Bullhead. A Separation has been at the top of nearly every movie critic’s “Best Movies of 2011” list, including Roger Ebert who declared it top dog of 2011. When it not has been put on a pedestal by critics, it has received fairly good buzz and will win the Oscar easily.
ZACH: No question here, A Separation is the op dog leading this race. Not only has it been nominated for Best Foreign Film, but also has garnered a nomination for writing. That type of recognition for a foreign film is very rare. Also, like Justin said above(and something we can finally agree on) the critics have praised this film to the high heavens. The only thing stopping it from winning is bitter old people who don’t want to vote for anything from the Middle East, especially with the increased nuclear tension that has spiked our oil prices as of late. But, who knows, maybe the win will help ease the tension. I say, go with A Separation here.
Now it is time for the real meat and potatoes of Oscar night, the writing and acting awards, and of course Best picture. Sadly, there are so many contests before the Oscars, these categories become more and more predictable every year, but you never know...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Moneyball
Hugo
The Ides of March
The Descendants
ZACH: At the end of the day, this category comes down to two films driven by their words more than their actions. Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and The Ides of March didn’t come anywhere close to being a movie driven by its words. Mostly it was the actors and actresses, or visuals for Hugo, delivering those words that helped edge those films into this category. That leaves Moneyball and The Descendants. When it was first announced Moneyball, based on a book about a general manager turning the game of baseball around, would be just another cliche sports movie. However, Aaron Sorkin worked magic again this year and managed to make the script define what Billy Beane did as a complete game changer. Unfortunately, The Descendants has been pulling out with every major win from the Golden Globes to the WGA’s win for its script and its ability to humanize an emotionally unstable family. Alexander Payne deserves recognition for once on stage at the academy, so The Decendants is my choice, even though based on degree of difficulty I would give it to Moneyball.
JUSTIN: This category on the surface seems like it is close because Moneyball has two of the greatest writers in the biz tabbed to it in Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zailian but the buzz has forever been pointing towards The Descendents and Alexander Payne’s return from his seven year sabbatical from film to win this. Plus, Jim Rash (Dean Pelton on Community) is credited with co-writing the flick so how could it not win?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Bridesmaids
A Separation
Margin Call
JUSTIN: Yet another category that pulls my heart and my head into two different directions. On one hand Bridesmaids was one of the funniest movies of the year, where there were some legitimate gut-busting moments. But on the other, I know that the Academy of super old white guys is going to support one of their own in Woody Allen with an Oscar. This depresses me because Bridesmaids was a much funnier film but when I get to be super old I will change the thinking of the Academy.
ZACH: Let’s face it folks, there would be no greater pleasure than to see Bridesmaids take home the Oscar for its outstandingly witty, clever, and touching comedy by the extremely talented Kristin Wigg and co. However, we must also face the fact that the academy truly does not like to represent comedy in the winners category on its glorious night in front of a nation that adores it. If The Artist manages to sweep every category before it, we might be in for a surprise here, but I can’t really see a script that ends up using a few lines of dialogue to truly be worthy of winning a writing Oscar. Midnight in Paris has been the front runner here for some time, and there is a good reason for that. It manages to blend the beauty of Paris within every conversation, the struggles and hopes of relationships, and also be a great history lesson for American literature. Also, Woody Allen’s script so deftly blends hysteria and charm that it seems to me no other script, besides Bridesmaids, matches up with it. That is why Midnight in Paris should win, and why it will win. Let’s just hope Woody Allen can show up to accept the award (he has been nominated several times in the past, but only has come to one Oscars show ever).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
ZACH: This catgory is telling me that in Hollywood, 82 is the new 30. Generally this category is used to pick a winner of a new up and coming actor that is ready to take on larger roles after succeeding so well in a supporting role. However, Christopher Plummer and Max von Sydow are both 82, and will become the oldest winners ever in Oscar history if either of them is to win. Christopher Plummer has literally been wiping the rest of the competition out with ease this year, and all that walking to the podium has probably damaged any further roles for while. Plummer plays an 82 year old man who just is finally coming out of the closet, and if you know Hollywood and the academy, they love the gay storylines as of recently. Just look art when Milk took home some acting awards a few years ago. Considering the only other competitor in this category would be Albert Brooks form Drive, who didn’t even get nominated, Christopher Plummer has this own sewn up tight. Let’s just hope he can make it up the ramp to the stage.
JUSTIN: As the Academy has told us in the past and will continue to tell us: the older you are, the more likely you are to win. In this category we have four elderly actors and one relatively young one. Sorry Fat Jonah Hill, the odds are stacked against you. Nick Nolte won’t win because Warrior isn’t nominated for anything else and is seen as a good not great film. Christopher Plummer is the most likely one to win because he already a Golden Globe and countless others this season.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
JUSTIN: Some categories have nominees so special that you just have to throw rationale out the window and take the crowd favorite. Melissa McCarthy’s hilarious supporting job in Bridesmaids separates her so much from the rest of the field that it shouldn’t even be close. Unfortunately, everybody else is playing very serious roles that have to do with solving racial issues, reviving a silent actor’s career, and helping a woman look and fit in like a man. Boring. Octavia Spencer may be the favorite here but it’s my pick dammit and I will do whatever I please with it. Melissa McCarthy it is!
ZACH: I want to make this category as simple as possible to choose. While everybody absolutely adored Melissa McCarthy for her scene stealing turn in Bridesmaids, unfortunately,like Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder last year, a nomination for an outstanding comedic role that deserves an Oscar is as far as you are going to get. Bejo might steal the award away if we find out the academy is in love with The Artist, but let’s get real, the true story of the acting world this year was the powerful film The Help. Jessicas Chastain plays the evil white woman in the film, so going against her nemesis in the movie, Octavia Spencer, truly doesn’t help her out. Octavia Spencer also has all the major awards in her favor from the SGA to the Golden Globes and many others. So while I would love to see Melissa McCarthy win it here, The Help and Octavia Spencer have a best picture nomination and to much going for it and make my pick for Spencer much more clear cut.
BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
ZACH: The Oscars come on so late, that it takes a little excitement out of the air. While it is great to finally see Gary Oldman in this category, he has no chance of pulling out this victory. Brad Pitt picked up steam out of the gate during awards season, but his chances seem to have dwindled not picking up any major wins at any of the awards show. Demian Bichir is a great story, coming out of nowhere to pick up a nomination, but a film seen by little usually doesn’t have a prayer at winning. Now, everyone knows and loves George Clooney, and secretly root for the man every year he is nominated. While I think George Clooney might be more deserving of the award, every year I pick the close second person to win and every year it fails me. The front-runner and winner of every major acting award has been Dujardin. The academy wants to recognize the great feat of taking on such a large role as to be front and center of a silent movie, and that is what I believe will happen in the end. Jean Dujardin comes away with the victory here, but it is close.
JUSTIN: Every time George Clooney gets nominated for Best Actor, everybody gets into a frenzy about how this latest performance is “the bane of his career” or something crazy like that. In 2007, he was nominated for Up in the Air and everybody was praising him left and right. This year is no different. “Clooney’s has performed his absolute best in this one” - said everyone. I am out of jokes but this would be an easy Clooney win if it weren’t for Jean Dujardin and The Artist. It has fascinated so people this year that it might sweep every major category this year. But I still believe our American hero George Clooney will pull out the win over the conniving Frenchman. Go Clooney!
BEST ACTRESS:
Viola Davis (The Help)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
JUSTIN: This category should be a no-brainer and Meryl Streep should take home the Oscar simply because she is a national treasure and that’s the way it should be. But no, the voters are hesitating because she is only 2 for 17 (!) lifetime at the Oscars and can never recognize her talent. Glenn Close does a great job masquerading as a man but Streep is so much more talented than the field. Rooney Mara is deserving but she has to be happy just to be there. Viola Davis is seen as the favorite and this is her time to win the statue so it kills me to go against one of the industry’s greatest actresses here. Sorry, Meryl. It’s Viola Davis.
ZACH: Yet again, the category comes down to two people, and leaving the others in the dust to give a 3 second fake smile during the ceremony. Meryl Streep seems to be the obvious choice, but the powerful woman in the group with all the momentum is Viola Davis, for her work leading the social change in the immensely popular box office hit The Help. The movie seems to have taken voters by storm as well, probably hearing from their peers how good the film was, and therefore will give Viola Davis the edge on Streep. Based on how the two movies were received (The Iron Lady had middle to bad reviews), I give Viola Davis the victory here.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Martin Scorcese (Hugo)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
ZACH: There is one golden rule for this category over the past 70 plus years, never bet against the DGA. It has been well documented that the winner of the DGA award for best director and the Oscars have only gone against each other 3 times. This year’s winner was Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, and his ability to make a complete full length feature film from silent film making is a film making achievement within itself. If there was someone to pull an upset, it would be Scorcese, for his incredible work of using 3-D to enhance a film for once, but also creating a truly magnificent story about the history of movies as well. Unfortunately, even though I think Scorcese should win, Michel Hazanavicius will win based on the golden rule.
JUSTIN: Malik will receive some consideration here for creating the very odd and bizarre Tree of Life but everyone will realize the film is nuts and throw him out of contention. Woody Allen and Martin Scorcese give solid efforts and provided some memorable moments this year but the winner will be Frenchman Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist. The Academy is still dumbfounded that somebody would have the balls to make a silent film in this age of filmmaking that they have no choice to honor the work. Good job Michel.
Finally, last but not least,
BEST PICTURE:
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Tree of Life
War Horse
JUSTIN: In his Grantland column today, Oscarologist Mark Harris said that this is not the strongest year for Best Picture nominees and everybody who didn’t think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close should have got nominate agrees (myself included). There is a lot of iffy films in here like The Tree of Life, which I wasn’t as enamored with as everyone else. With the field being so diluted this year, the voters are looking to see which one brings out the most unique qualities and The Artist does in full force. It’s a silent film for goodness sakes! Hugo was my favorite film of the year and I cannot wait to see it in 3-D again soon. But The Artist is simply the most polarizing film of the year and it will be rewarded as such with the Best Picture Oscar.
ZACH: We are finally here, the “Best Picture” category. Like Justin said before, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close does not deserve to be in this category at all. They might as well have given Transformers the nod. Instead, the nomination should have gone to Bridesmaids, an would have easily increased the ratings by a Nielsen point or two. Either way, another film that could have a slight chance at pulling a “Rocky”-type upset would be The Help. The Help easily grossed the most money out of any of the films, and it did so by creating a whirlwind of buzz and inspiration around the film. IN the end, the two films with the most nominations are The Artist and Hugo, and those generally are the films that contend for the title every year. Hugo’s momentum has died incredibly fast as of late, while The Artist has tap-danced its way into the winners circle at previous awards shows. The Artist silently will dance into the winner’s circle as well on Oscar night, and take home the top prize, and make Harvey Weinstein’s ego even greater.
-Well, that does it. After 3 days of intense thinking, we are finally done. While Justin and I disagreed a lot from the beginning to the middle, the overall larger categories are generally to easy to predict these days than ever before. We hope this helps you win a small amount of cash in whatever Oscar pool you might be in. This is a great site, so keep coming back for more great things to read.